天上天下

Is China's economic stimulus too much of a good thing?
中国过度的经济刺激是否是一件好事？

Reuters
路透社

CHINESE growth was already the envy of the world. Now recession-stricken countries will be turning an even brighter green. On Thursday July 16th new figures showed China’s GDP growth quickened to 7.9% in the year to the second quarter. That is healthy enough by anyone’s standards but the headline number conceals a more astonishing rebound. Goldman Sachs estimates that GDP grew at an annualised rate of 16.5% in the second quarter compared with the previous three months. Over the same period, America’s economy probably contracted again. China’s economic stimulus has clearly been hugely effective. So effective, indeed, that some economists are now worrying it may be working rather too well.

中国经济增长的速度为世界所嫉妒。现在那些受到经济衰退打击的国家处境更加艰难。在7月16日周四，新发布的数据显示中国今年第二季度的GDP增长率回复到7.9%。尽管对于任何国家而言这都是一个足够健康的指标，但在标题的后面其实还隐藏着更为惊人的反弹。Goldman Sachs估计第二季度的GDP相比前三个月是以16.5%的年率增长的。而在同一时期，美国的经济可能进一步萎缩。中国刺激经济的措施已经明显起到了巨大的作用。如此有效，其实，已经有些经济学家开始担忧中国已经做得过于好了。

In the year to June fixed investment surged by 35%, car sales rose by 48%, and purchases of homes by more than 80%. After falling last year, home prices are now rising briskly in some big cities, and share prices have soared by 80% from their November low. Domestic spending has been spurred partly by the government’s stimulus package, but probably even more important was the scrapping of restrictions on bank lending late last year. In June new lending was more than four times larger than a year earlier.

上半年已经确定投资增加了35%，汽车销量增加了48%，住房销量增加了超过80%。经历了去年的滑落后，现在一些大城市的房价迅速攀升，股价也自去年十一月时的低谷中猛增了80%。家庭消费被政府的一系列措施激起了活力，更为重要的是去年年末对于银行借贷限制的放宽。六月的贷款总额相当于年初的四倍。

One reason why the economy has rebounded so quickly is that much of the slowdown was self-inflicted, rather than the result of America’s economic collapse. In 2007 concerns about overheating prompted the government to curb the flow of credit for construction and home buying. This caused China’s economy to slow sharply even before the global financial crisis. Then, last November, the government turned the credit tap back on full.

中国经济迅速发弹的一个原因是，比起美国经济崩溃的结果，中国的经济减缓有一部分是自身施加的。在2007年，对于经济过热的担忧促使中国政府开始限制信贷流动和家庭消费。这使得中国经济在全球危机之前急剧减缓。于是，在去年十一月政府放开了信贷的缺口。

That has given a big boost to domestic spending but raised concerns that the flood of liquidity will push up inflation, fuel bubbles in shares and housing, and store up bad loans. The M2 measure of money surged by 29% in the year to June. In fact the risk of high inflation in the near future appears low: Chinese consumer prices fell by 1.7% in the year to June, and spare capacity at home and abroad is holding down prices. But asset prices could be a bigger danger. According to one estimate, 20% of new lending went into the stockmarket in the first five months of this year.

这些措施带动了家庭消费的同时也增加了一些隐忧，如：流动性过剩导致的通货膨胀，股市和房市的经济泡沫，不良信贷的累积。上半年的货币供应量2增长了39%。事实上，近期产生高通胀的风险还很低：上半年中国消费价格回落了1.7%，国内外市场保持的低价格也有上涨的空间。但资产价格还存在着一定的风险，据估计，今年前五个月的信贷资本中有20%流入了证券市场。

It is probably too soon to use the word “bubble”. The stockmarket is still at only half its 2007 peak and, although house prices have risen sharply this year in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the nationwide average is barely higher than it was a year ago. But the pace of bank lending is unsustainable, and America’s recent experience suggests that it is better to prevent bubbles forming than to mop up the mess afterwards. Several officials at the central bank People’s Bank of China (PBOC) have said lending should be curbed.

但似乎现在就谈论“泡沫”为时尚早。证券市场依然仅仅达到2007年峰值的一半，尽管上海和深圳的房价在今年急剧攀升，但全国范围的均价仅仅高过去年。不过银行信贷的步伐还不能确实，美国的现状提醒着我们，防止泡沫的形成远比最后收拾乱糟糟的局面好的多。一些央行的官员在谈到银行贷款时都认为需要限制。

At the moment, the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, is signalling that he wants monetary policy kept fairly loose. Exports remain weak and the government fears premature tightening could derail the recovery. It is also keen to create jobs and maintain social stability in the months before the 60th anniversary of Communist Party rule in October.

目前，中国总理温家宝发出信号希望货币政策保持宽松。由于出口减少，政府担心过早的加紧货币政策会使经济恢复出轨。这也同样有利于在建国60周年增加就业和保持社会的稳定。

Still, the central bank has begun to tug gently at the reins. It has nudged up money-market interest rates and warned banks that it intends to increase its scrutiny of new bank loans. The China Banking Regulatory Commission has warned banks to stick to rules on mortgages for second homes, which require a down-payment of at least 40% of a property’s value.

尽管如此，央行仍然温柔的控制着放贷的缰绳。它一方面轻轻推动着金融市场的吸引力，另一方面警告银行在增加新贷款的时候注意提高安全性。中国银监会警告银行在二次房贷时必须坚持按照规定，要求首次支付房产总额的40%。

The recent rebound in house sales is, in fact, exactly what the government is aiming for, since it is using property as a way to spur private consumption. Higher house sales encourage more spending on furniture and consumer appliances. Construction also creates lots of jobs; indeed, it employs almost as many workers as the export sector. Since October the government has encouraged people to buy houses by cutting the minimum mortgage down-payment on their main home from ? 30% to 20% and by reducing stamp duty and other taxes on property transactions. Stronger sales are now feeding through into new house building: housing starts rose by 12% in the year to June, the first growth in 12 months.

自从中国政府通过房地产来刺激私人消费，如今房地产市场已经反弹，确切的说这正是政府的目的所在。房地产的高销量促进了家装的消费，建筑业同样催生了大量的职位，的确，该行业所雇用的工人足以和出口业相比。自从十月政府将房贷首付的下限由30%调整到20%，并在房地产交易中下调印花税和其他税率以鼓励人们购买房产。销量的增长刺激了新房产的建设，到今年六月房产开始提升12%，是十二个月来的首次增长。

Given the importance of property to domestic demand, the government is highly unlikely to want to clamp down hard on the housing market. Despite the recent lending boom, Chinese banks’ mortgage lending is still very conservative compared with that in America—at the peak of America’s housing bubble it was easy to get a mortgage for 100% or more of the value of a home. Nevertheless, the lesson of America’s financial crisis for China’s government is plain: overly loose lending should never be ignored.

虽然了解房地产市场对于国内需求的重要性，政府仍然不会取消对房地产市场的限制。尽管目前贷款量激增，但中国银行对于抵押贷款依旧非常保守，相比于美国经济全盛时期可以轻易的抵押贷款到价值100%甚至更高的房产。美国的金融危机给中国政府的教训很清楚，贷款的过度宽松是不能被忽视的。